NBA Season 2018/19

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NBA Season 2018/19
Igor Djuricic

Glopinion by

Igor Djuricic

Oct 19, 2018

NBA season predictions 2018-19: East, West contenders look to end Warriors' dynasty

It will, without question, be worth watching.

The Warriors have won three of the past four NBA titles and added All-Star DeMarcus Cousins on a one-year deal this offseason. It has given the 2018-19 NBA season an air of predetermination that has been present since Kevin Durant joined them — that the title is Golden State’s to lose. It might seem like last season was a cakewalk for the Warriors, but they were still one game away from the Rockets eliminating them. They are the favorites this year to be sure, but there are a bunch of intriguing story lines to watch as the season opens Tuesday, with the Timberwolves set to open Wednesday at San Antonio.

That has not always been the case with the NBA regular season in recent years, when it seemed that not only the champion was predetermined, but the matchup itself — Cavs-Warriors, four straight years — was easily predictable by the end of July.

This year, with LeBron James leaving the Cavaliers and heading to the Lakers, the East is finally free from his grip. James has a run of eight straight Finals appearances going, but it’s safe to say that will end here. It’s also safe to say that the East will have a new champ, too, because the James-less Cavs will have to claw just to make the playoffs.

Eastern Conference
Top tier

The Celtics will enter the season as the clear favorites in the East, but the internal dynamics of the team bear watching as they integrate Kyrie Irving and Gordon Hayward back into the starting five after the team’s budding youngsters made a strong run at the Finals last spring without them.

The Raptors will welcome Kawhi Leonard and hope that his addition is enough to push them past the developing young talent of the Sixers, but those two teams figure to fight it out for the top spot behind Boston. We’re betting on Joel Embiid, Ben Simmons and friends, but it will be close.

1. Celtics

2. Sixers

3. Raptors

Home-court scramble

Maybe the best race in the East will wind up being the race for the fourth seed, and the home-court advantage in the first round of the playoffs. The Pacers, coming off a 48-win season and building with a good draft and solid free-agency pickups that bolstered their depth, look like the favorite, and could move into the top three in the East if there are injuries in Toronto or Philadelphia.

Milwaukee, entering a new building, is counting on new coach Mike Budenholzer to take better advantage of the MVP-type talent of Giannis Antetokounmpo, and the Wizards are looking at a make-or-break season for their John Wall-Bradley Beal-Otto Porter nucleus after last year’s disappointment.

4. Pacers

5. Bucks

6. Wizards

The field

Cleveland has been determined since losing LeBron James in free agency that the team would not fall apart completely, and there is enough of a mix of young talent and veterans to push them above .500, which should be enough for one of the East’s last two seeds.

New coach Dwane Casey inherits a Pistons group that needs Blake Griffin to stay healthy, and could surprise if that happens. Barring a trade for Jimmy Butler, that would likely leave Miami out of the playoff mix, with the Hornets looking to new coach James Borrego to rethink the team’s sputtering offense.

7. Cavaliers

8. Pistons

9. Heat

10. Hornets

Lottery hopes

The Nets have built up some decent young pieces, and while they could make an early run at the playoffs, they lack the depth to carry it through. At long last, Brooklyn actually owns its own lottery pick, so they’d better take advantage.

The Knicks will suffer without Kristaps Porzingis, and it’s still too soon for the Magic, Bulls and Hawks to make real progress.

11. Nets

12. Magic

13. Knicks

14. Bulls

15. Hawks

 

Western Conference
The top two

It would be a surprise if the Rockets were to repeat last year’s heroics and come away with the top overall seed in the NBA, but we can’t rule out the possibility.

The Warriors are, as always, loaded, and added DeMarcus Cousins in free agency. Cousins won’t be healthy until the stretch run, but it’s safe to say that no contender is likely to add a better piece at midseason than him. Once again, it’s the Warriors’ NBA, and we’re all just waiting to see who gets second place.

1. Warriors

2. Rockets

Top tier

There are a handful of teams with the potential to land in the top four of the West, but coming into the year, the two with the best chances are Utah and Oklahoma City. The Jazz have star sophomore Donovan Mitchell leading the way after a 48-win season in which Utah dominated the second half and reached the conference semis. If Rudy Gobert is healthy all year and Mitchell irons out his efficiency, Utah should easily be in the West’s top three.

Oklahoma City is more of a wild card, especially with Andre Roberson needing more time to recover from knee surgery. But Paul George is back and Carmelo Anthony is gone, which is all very positive news for the Thunder.

3. Jazz

4. Thunder

The hard eight

It’s going to be no easy task to land in the West’s final eight, even as some teams figure to take steps backward and one — the Lakers — figures to take a giant leap forward. LA landed LeBron James and a host of talented weirdos (Rajon Rondo, Lance Stephenson, Michael Beasley, JaVale McGee) last summer, and we wish coach Luke Walton all the luck in figuring out how to make it work. The Lakers did not put this team together to land in the lottery, and Walton will be on the hot seat from Day One.

The rest of the potential playoff field is not going to make things easy. Denver was strong when healthy last year, and youngsters Nikola Jokic, Jamal Murray and Gary Harris are impressive offensive talents. The Pelicans are coming off a strong second half, and if Portland can back up its defensive improvement from last year, they’ll be a playoff team, too.

5. Nuggets

6. Lakers

7. Pelicans

8. Trail Blazers

Outside looking in

The Timberwolves may not make the playoffs, but they’re going to be fascinating in the early season if Jimmy Butler comes in and tries to play with teammates Andrew Wiggins and Karl-Anthony Towns, two players he has been criticizing behind their backs for months now. They’re the wildcard in all this. The whole thing could implode or maybe, in some weird way, Butler’s antics will set this team off on a rage-filled 50-win bender. Who knows?

The other West teams legitimately trying to earn a playoff spot are likely to be disappointed. San Antonio has been devastated by point guard injuries, and the Mavs, Grizzlies and Clippers just don’t have the talent level to keep up with the rest of the West.

9. Timberwolves

10. Mavericks

11. Spurs

12. Grizzlies

13. Clippers

Lottery hopes

Even with the bizarre firing of Ryan McDonough, things are still finally pointed in a positive direction for Phoenix, with No. 1 pick Deandre Ayton looking like a Rookie of the Year favorite and new coach Igor Kokoskov, a respected veteran assistant, on hand.

There are interesting young pieces on the Sacramento roster, but the Kings are still a few years from being truly competitive, and might well screw things up in the meantime.

14. Suns

15. Kings

 

1 LeBron switches conferences

For the first time in his career, LeBron James is in the Western Conference, and he has instantly turned the Lakers into a playoff-caliber team just by being on the roster. What his presence also does is make the Western Conference even more of a logjam. Last season, the Wolves were the eighth seed at 47-35 while the third-seeded Trail Blazers were only two games better. There will be good teams that don’t make the playoffs in the West this season. A key injury here or there could be the difference between getting in and being relegated to the lottery.

2 East is up for grabs

Because James is in the West, it means the Eastern Conference will have a team in the Finals that doesn’t have him on it for the first time since 2010. The consensus favorite to be that team is the Celtics, considering they took the Cavaliers to Game 7 last season without Kyrie Irving and Gordon Hayward in their lineup. Add Irving and Hayward to a group that includes Jaylen Brown, Jason Tatum, Al Horford and Terry Rozier and you have a scary deep team. But the Raptors are all in this season after making the trade for Kawhi Leonard, and the 76ers’ young talent only figures to get better.

3 New shot clock rule

The biggest story lines for the 2018-19 NBA season involve, clockwise from top left, Jimmy Butler and the Timberwolves; the San Antonio Spurs without Kawhi Leonard, now with Toronto; DeMarcus Cousins joining an already star-studded Golden State team; LeBron James making his Western debut with the Lakers; and the Celtics with the return of starters Kyrie Irving (pictured) and Gordon Hayward.
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Perhaps the most significant on-court change is the shot clock, which will reset to only 14 seconds following an offensive rebound. This should create more offense, since teams won’t have the luxury of a full reset after picking up an offensive board. It is also likely to have an effect on teams’ second-chance points and how they might want to strategize attacking the offensive glass. Teams might want to focus on transition defense if there is less time to work for a good shot following an offensive rebound.

4 Butler drama

It’s a story that doesn’t seem to have clean resolution coming soon, but Jimmy Butler’s trade request — and Wolves owner Glen Taylor’s pledge to honor that request — will be a significant move that could shape the balance of power in the league. It’s not every day that a top-10 or -15 player is moved, and whatever team ends up with him could take another step as a franchise. The Wolves will likely take a step back in the short term, but with a smart trade, perhaps they can make strides for the long term.

5 Will the Spurs keep streak alive?

The last time the Spurs missed the playoffs was 1997, the year Gregg Popovich replaced Bob Hill as coach. San Antonio has been a model for consistency and continuity, but more than any season in the Popovich era there are questions. Tony Parker is with the Hornets. Manu Ginobili retired, and Kawhi Leonard was traded to the Raptors. Popovich will have to make it work with LaMarcus Aldridge and DeMar DeRozan. There are worse situations, but in a stacked West, will the Spurs have enough firepower after losing promising guard Dejounte Murray to a torn knee ligament?

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