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Igor Djuricic

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Igor Djuricic

Mar 20, 2019

Power Rankings, Week 23: Statement wins propel Warriors to top

1
Golden State Warriors
Record: 47-21
Pace: 102.0 (10) OffRtg: 114.9 (1) DefRtg: 109.0 (14) NetRtg: +5.9 (2)

The Warriors' last four games include a loss at home to the worst team in the Western Conference and three wins (against the Nuggets, Rockets and Thunder) to prove that they're still the best. Their win in Houston on Wednesday was DeMarcus Cousins' best game with the champs (28 points, eight rebounds, seven assists, and a plus-7 in a two-point win), and their win in Oklahoma City on Saturday was their best defensive game (88 points allowed on 103 possessions) of the season. Both came without Kevin Durant (right ankle contusion) and with Andre Iguodala in the starting lineup. The Warriors have the five best two-man combinations in regard to on-court point differential per 100 possessions among the 373 that have played at least 700 minutes together, and the best of those has been Iguodala and Stephen Curry, with the champs having outscored their opponents by 14.5 points per 100 possessions in 724 minutes with the two on the floor together. The three statement wins of the last 10 days were extra important, because the Warriors have few opportunities to really prove themselves going forward. They have just five games remaining against teams with winning records, and three of those are part of a five-game week that starts Monday in San Antonio.

Week 23: @ SAS, @ MIN, vs. IND, vs. DAL, vs. DET

2
Milwaukee Bucks
Last week: 1
Milwaukee Bucks
Record: 52-18
Pace: 103.3 (6) OffRtg: 113.5 (3) DefRtg: 104.7 (1) NetRtg: +8.8 (1)

Adversity has found the Bucks, who had been relatively healthy all season, with their starting lineup having played more games than any other lineup in the league through Friday. But a right foot injury has Malcolm Brogdon out a reported 6-8 weeks, taking the league's second-best catch-and-shoot 3-point shooter away from the team that takes the second most 3-pointers. The Bucks should be able to hold onto the No. 1 seed and cruise through the first round without Brogdon, but things could get dicey if Brogdon isn't back by the conference semis. A career-high 52 points from Giannis Antetokounmpo were somehow not enough against the Sixers on Sunday, because the defense was not up to the Bucks' standards. Starting Nikola Mirotic in place of Brogdon keeps four shooters around Antetokounmpo, but obviously hurts the team's mobility on the other end of the floor.

Week 23: vs. LAL, @ CLE, vs. MIA, vs. CLE

3
Houston Rockets
Last week: 2
Houston Rockets
Record: 44-26
Pace: 98.2 (28) OffRtg: 114.1 (2) DefRtg: 111.1 (21) NetRtg: +3.0 (11)

The Rockets couldn't complete a season sweep of the Warriors, because they shot 11-for-41 from 3-point range (not as bad as they shot in Game 7 last year, but still bad) on Wednesday. But over the weekend, the Rockets managed a game (against Phoenix) in which they shot 11-for-40 from beyond the arc (just their fourth win when shooting less then 30 percent from deep) and a game (against Minnesota) in which James Harden didn't shoot a single free throw (for the first time since Game 1 of the 2016 playoffs). They got those wins (and almost beat the Warriors despite the poor shooting), because they now have a somewhat reliable defense. The Rockets have seen the league's biggest drop in points allowed per 100 possessions from before the All-Star break (112.2 - 25th in the league) to after it (106.2 - 6th). They're on the road for four of their next five games, but have won 11 of their last 12, a stretch that includes road wins over the Warriors, Celtics, and Raptors.

Week 23: @ ATL, @ MEM, vs. SAS, @ NOP

4
Denver Nuggets
Last week: 5
Denver Nuggets
Record: 46-22
Pace: 98.8 (23) OffRtg: 113.0 (4) DefRtg: 108.0 (11) NetRtg: +5.0 (4)

The Nuggets will play nine of their final 14 games on the road and 10 of the 14 against teams that currently have winning records. They're also one of two teams (the Warriors are the other) with four back-to-backs left to play. So it was important to bank three wins on their homestand last week, with Nikola Jokic (on a buzzer-beating leaner) and Paul Millsap (attacking a Myles Turner close-out) providing the last-second heroics against Dallas and Indiana, respectively. Only the Sixers (27-12) have been better than the Nuggets (26-13) in games that were within five points in the last five minutes, and no team has been better defensively (Denver has allowed 94.6 points per 100) on clutch possessions. With Isaiah Thomas out of the rotation, the bench minutes were better last week, with the Nuggets outscoring their opponents by 34 points in 53 minutes with Jokic off the floor.

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Week 23: @ BOS, @ WAS, @ NYK, @ IND

 

5
Toronto Raptors
Last week: 3
Toronto Raptors
Record: 49-21
Pace: 100.7 (15) OffRtg: 112.0 (7) DefRtg: 107.3 (9) NetRtg: +4.7 (5)

When Fred VanVleet was lost for more than a month with a thumb injury, Jeremy Lin seemed like a timely addition for the Raptors. But, with Lin having shot 36 percent (including a brutal 6-for-35 from 3-point range) in his 12 games with his new team, VanVleet's return to health couldn't have come sooner. VanVleet had a careless and costly turnover late in the Raptors' loss in Detroit on Sunday, but played 31 minutes and shot 4-for-5 from beyond the arc, replacing Lin in the starting lineup at the start of the third quarter (with Kyle Lowry missing his second straight game). Their game against New York on Monday is the second half of the Raptors' final back-to-back of the season. But with Lowry dealing with an ankle injury, Serge Ibaka suspended for one more game, and Kawhi Leonard bound to take at least few more games off, it appears that continuity will remain an issue for this team as it enters the postseason in less than four weeks.

Week 23: vs. NYK, @ OKC, vs. OKC, vs. CHA

6
Philadelphia 76ers
Last week: 10
Philadelphia 76ers
Record: 45-25
Pace: 102.7 (7) OffRtg: 111.2 (10) DefRtg: 108.0 (10) NetRtg: +3.2 (10)

Joel Embiid has been back for four games, the Sixers have won all four, and Embiid had 40 points, 15 rebounds and six assists in their most important win of the season. Playing the Bucks (the league's best defensive team) on the road, they had their best offensive game (130 points on 106 possessions) since the All-Star break, because Jimmy Butler added 27 points (with 13 free throw attempts) to Embiid's 40. Butler took a back seat in the offense when the Sixers first added Tobias Harris, but might be turning it up a notch, which is what Brett Brown wants. "I want him to put his thumbprint on a game more and more," Brown said Friday. "We will not be as good as we can be without him playing like he plays." The Sixers have just two games remaining against teams that currently have winning records, but one of those is Wednesday, when they'll try to avoid a season sweep at the hands of the Celtics.

Week 23: @ CHA, vs. BOS, @ ATL

7
Portland Trail Blazers
Last week: 6
Portland Trail Blazers
Record: 42-27
Pace: 100.3 (18) OffRtg: 112.8 (5) DefRtg: 109.3 (16) NetRtg: +3.5 (9)

The Blazers' starting lineup continues to rank near the top of the league in minutes played (both total and per game) and, since the break, has outscored its opponents by 21.2 points per 100 possessions, the best mark among 14 lineups that have played at least 100 post-break minutes. But their bench has struggled to maintain leads (Enes Kanter has had a positive plus-minus in just one of his 11 games with Portland) and they'll be without C.J. McCollum (left knee strain) for at least a week. Considering the alternative, the McCollum diagnosis was good news, but the injury was a reminder that this team has been relatively fortunate health-wise. In the 25 months since the Blazers acquired Jusuf Nurkic from Denver, McCollum, Nurkic and Damian Lillard have missed just four, 11 and 12 games, respectively.

Week 23: vs. IND, vs. DAL, vs. DET

8
San Antonio Spurs
Last week: 11
San Antonio Spurs
Record: 41-29
Pace: 99.2 (22) OffRtg: 112.1 (6) DefRtg: 110.7 (20) NetRtg: +1.4 (12)

When they returned from the rodeo trip, the Spurs were tied in the loss column with the ninth-place Kings. Since then, they've won eight straight games, and their win over the Blazers on Saturday has them within two games in the loss column of a top-four seed. Home-court advantage would be meaningful, given that they're 1-9 on the road against the West's seven other playoff teams, with only two more opportunities (one of them in Houston on Friday) to improve on that mark. The bigger difference (almost 20 points per 100 possessions) between the rodeo trip and the winning streak has been on defense, with the Spurs having allowed their opponents to shoot a league-low 54 percent in the restricted area over the last eight games, down from 67 percent over the previous eight. Their improve defense will be tested against the league's top two offenses (those of the Warriors and Rockets) this week.

Week 23: vs. GSW, vs. MIA, @ HOU, @ BOS

9
LA Clippers
Last week: 7
LA Clippers
Record: 41-30
Pace: 102.5 (9) OffRtg: 111.2 (11) DefRtg: 110.0 (19) NetRtg: +1.2 (13)

Things got a little hairy when the Clippers blew a 10-point lead with less than a minute to go against Brooklyn on Sunday. But Lou Williams saved the day with the first buzzer-beating game-winner of his 14-year career, a shot that illustrates a couple of key Clippers stats. They rank third in clutch offense (having scored 117.6 points per 100 possessions with the score within five points in the last five minutes of the fourth quarter or overtime) and have shot a league-best 44 percent from 3-point range in March. They didn't shoot enough 3-pointers (they were 9-for-15) in their loss to Portland on Tuesday, which was their final game in which they had a rest disadvantage (playing the second game of a back-to-back against a rested opponent). They had a rest advantage against the Nets and still have a league-high four rest-advantage games left on their schedule. The last of those is against the Jazz (who they currently trail by a half game in the loss column for seventh place) on the last night of the season. The first of those games is Tuesday against the Pacers, who play in Portland on Monday. The Clips are 8-3 (6-1 at home and 2-2 on the road) in rest-advantage games thus far.

 

10
Utah Jazz
Last week: 9
Utah Jazz
Record: 40-29
Pace: 100.7 (14) OffRtg: 108.9 (17) DefRtg: 105.4 (3) NetRtg: +3.5 (8)

The Jazz have turned things up defensively, holding four of their last six opponents under a point per possession. But they remain in seventh place because their own offense scored just 89 points on 98 possessions (without Ricky Rubio) against the Thunder on Monday, with OKC completing a sweep of the season series. The Jazz proceeded to take care of business against the Suns, Wolves and Nets, and now they play 11 straight games against teams that currently have losing records. They're 22-10 against that group so far, and with seven of those 11 opponents having bottom-10 offenses (and none ranking in the top 10 offensively), they still have a shot at finishing No. 1 in defensive efficiency for the second straight season. But they do already have losses to New Orleans and Memphis (two of their worst defensive games of the season) this month.

Week 23: @ WAS, @ NYK, @ ATL, @ CHI

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